Analyst: Long-Term Bitcoin Holders Are Taking Profits, Signaling Possible Market Top

In Brief:

LTH average cost has surged 9.57% in 7 days, now around $31,000.

Analysts say some LTHs may be offloading coins as they sense BTC is nearing a cycle peak.

On-chain analyst Murphy reports that long-term Bitcoin holders (LTHs) are beginning to take profits, raising questions about whether the current BTC price is nearing a cycle top.

According to data shared on May 17, the 7-day average cost change for LTHs has jumped 9.57%, a sharp increase that suggests low-cost BTC—previously held by long-term holders—is being sold. As a result, the average acquisition cost for LTHs now sits at around $31,000.

Murphy notes that LTHs—often considered "diamond hands"—typically avoid selling unless driven by fear or strategic caution. Since there's no sign of panic selling in current market conditions, the profit-taking may reflect LTHs anticipating a local top based on their own long-term valuation models.

The shift could also be influenced by the gradual transition of some short-term holders (STHs) into long-term status after buying higher and holding longer, blending into the LTH category. This transition, combined with older low-cost wallets selling off, is driving the average LTH cost upward.

While LTH activity is historically seen as a reliable long-term market signal, Murphy cautions that “even long-term holders can misjudge the top.” Still, the data suggests a more cautious tone among seasoned investors as Bitcoin trades above $100,000 in 2025.

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