Polymarket Traders Give 16% Odds to Musk Launching a Political Party

In Brief:

Polymarket shows a 16% chance Musk forms a political party, and 5% for a near-term launch.

Both odds have dropped slightly compared to the previous day.

According to prediction market platform Polymarket, traders currently assign a 16% probability that Elon Musk will establish a new political party. A separate market tracking the chances of a launch in the near term reflects a 5% likelihood.

Both figures have declined since the previous day, with the longer-term prediction down by 5 percentage points and the near-term estimate decreasing by 2 points. This suggests waning short-term expectations for political action from Musk.

While the idea of Musk entering politics isn’t new, recent shifts in sentiment may reflect the absence of clear public signals or announcements from him.

Still, the existence of these markets—and the attention they’re receiving—points to ongoing speculation around Musk’s potential political ambitions.

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